Culture Clash

(November 2006)

Recovery Console

Predominantly a PC gamer, I get to enjoy console launches, watching with bemused detachment as the combatants try to win the hearts and minds of gamers. This generation's throwdown has been one of the more entertaining and unpredictable; no one really knows what will happen. Moreover, for the first time each of the three combatants have taken decidedly -- even dramatically -- different approaches to gain the attention of the buying public. This is necessary given the changing face of the console landscape.

To the casual observer, Sony is hard at work shooting itself not in the foot but in the face. The company's weird pronouncements, haughty behavior and apparent unwillingness to perceive the realities of the console market -- not to mention losses and other bad PR -- insinuate that PS3 may be doomed out of the gate. And yet does such naïveté seem likely in a company that has so utterly dominated the console space? There are two potential conclusions to be drawn here. Either Sony's position of leadership has spawned a blindered arrogance of U.S. government-level proportions, or there is a method to their apparent madness… though it remains to be seen whether that method is the consequence of shrewd planning or dumb luck.

Yes, the PS3 is very expensive, a fact that's led to gloomy (and potentially true) long-term predictions about the console's potential. I know I'm not buying one. History tells us that consumers don't accept consoles above a certain price ceiling; and Sony's justification is irrelevant. Contrary to their claims, most people don't think of game consoles as computers, don't want PCs in their living rooms anyway, don't care about Blu-Ray and, frankly, don't give a damn what it costs Sony to build the PS3. From that perspective the price will be damaging. Sony knows this. But they've also been busily slashing production numbers: a move that guarantees a paper triumph. By shipping a few units at a high price, they can honestly claim that they sold out on launch day, slurp up the mainstream press publicity, then refocus on optimizing production to cut price. The fact is, there are people who will line up to buy PS3 at $600 just to say they did. It's a dangerous play, and might end in disaster; Sony is gambling on the shifting winds of user opinion. And surprise, surprise: as PS3's launch draws nigh, suddenly not all press is laced with animosity.

Meanwhile, Nintendo's philosophy states that quality and quantity of games is more important than hypertechnology. Recognizing their technical inferiority, the company is hawking major franchises and intriguing new control sets, shipping the console for a reasonably low price and in sufficient numbers to dodge the “Xbox 360 Ruins Christmas” headline of last year but retain the likelihood of the all-important launch day sellout. Sony hopes to sway consumers by implying that their console is so awesome that only the most awesome people are in fact worthy of owning one, betting that everyone likes to think of themselves as awesome. Nintendo is trying to sway consumers by focusing on fun and community, while downplaying awesomeness. Both approaches are rooted in careful manipulation of consumers, and they both have potential.

It's “no soup for you” versus “let them eat cake.” PS3 is insanely powerful and, of course, it's a PlayStation. That alone will sell many units. Wii, meanwhile, ships around the same time, cheaper and in greater quantities, with hugely important franchises at launch. Nintendo's apparent inability to do wrong these days puts it in a solid position, but its strategizing has not always been so bulletproof. And though Wii seems really neat, seem and are don't necessarily match up. It remains to be seen whether the console's new control model can evolve beyond gimmick status, and what that might mean to long-term success. Plus, Wii is only a whisper more powerful than a GameCube. Consumers care more about games than technology, but maybe not that much more. DS sales will keep Nintendo safe regardless, but it's too early to say the Wii experiment, however laudable, is a sure thing.

The 360 will have been out for about a year when its competitors ship. And unlike Sony and Nintendo, its launch had much more in common with past ones. The Wii/PS3 launches focus on new approaches, innovative technologies, surprising prices and -- most importantly -- public perception of the companies that created them. Microsoft just shipped a video game console and that was that. There's been talk of dwindling interest in the 360, but that's hardly surprising since the thing's been out for a year, and sexy new stuff always gets more attention early on. The biggest problem the 360 has is that the library is still disappointingly sparse.

But Microsoft isn't sitting still. Several important games are on their way. They're also working to broaden 360's appeal in the crucial Japanese market, where Xbox has historically underperformed. In launch terms, the 360 may be “just a video game console” compared to the competition, but Microsoft isn't being cavalier about drumming up customer interest. Plus, their focus on online has really brought the living room gamespace into the web-based world. Live's success, plus 360's embrace of HD technology and Microsoft's ongoing initiatives for the console have meant that 360 is in a solid position for the holiday season, even if it's not top news. Current trend projections suggest that the 360 might in fact take home the gold in this generation.

But the console wars are not Thunderdome. Three consoles will enter, and three are quite likely to leave. To channel Defcon, it's not about winning, but about losing the least. The “winner” of the next-gen console war may wind up having a lot in common with the loser -- in fact, each may hold the top (and bottom) spot at some point in this generation's lifecycle. All three companies are manipulating public perception in ways that each believes will bring them the prize at the end of the race. In a world where cross-platform releases are practically the norm, gamers don't need to go where the games are anymore. The games are everywhere. Thus it falls to a clever mix of psychology and advertising to drive people, sheeplike, into the appropriate plastic corral.